David Barnea, the head of Israel's intelligence agency Mossad, reportedly traveled alone to Doha for a meeting with Qatar's Prime Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani. According to report by BBC News published on July 5 2024, This development is significant as it coincides with increasing momentum towards a potential ceasefire and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas.
While this meeting is considered an initial step, it could initiate a complex series of discussions aimed at bridging the gap between the Israeli government and Hamas. Negotiations face challenges due to differing definitions of their respective bottom lines in a potential deal.
Israeli officials have emphasized the need to manage expectations, indicating the importance of caution.
The renewed hope for a deal emerged after Hamas responded to a three-phase proposal presented by President Biden several weeks ago.
The main obstacle preventing both sides from accepting a deal has been Hamas' demand for a permanent ceasefire and Israel's insistence on the freedom to resume fighting if necessary.
The details of Hamas' response have not been made public yet. However, Israeli officials have reacted more positively than in previous instances when negotiations regained momentum over the past seven months. A source from Israel's negotiating team described Hamas' proposal as a "very significant breakthrough."
There are indications that this breakthrough could involve Hamas accepting the central point of President Biden's proposal, which allows negotiations to pursue a permanent end to the war during the initial six-week phase of the ceasefire, rather than making it a precondition.
Hamas has consistently rejected being portrayed as the main obstacle to a deal, particularly by the United States. If Hamas indeed made this concession, the responsibility would shift to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu has consistently maintained his commitment to completely eradicating Hamas and Israel's right to resume fighting in Gaza after any ceasefire. He has resisted internal and external pressures to modify his stance. However, mounting pressure from various sources may influence him.
The recent push for a ceasefire seems to have originated within the Israeli military. According to a recent article in the New York Times, citing unnamed current and former security officials, Israel's top generals are willing to pursue a ceasefire in Gaza even if it means Hamas remains in power temporarily.
Netanyahu dismissed this perspective as defeatist, but he may not be able to withstand the pressure indefinitely, especially with growing public demand within Israel to bring home the remaining hostages in Gaza.
Hamas is also facing signs of despair among the civilian population in Gaza, who bear the brunt of the ongoing war. Internationally, mediators like Egypt and Qatar may be losing patience.
Regional countries that strongly support the Palestinian cause have reportedly increased pressure on Hamas to accept a deal. Hamas' leadership may perceive the group's survival, even in a politically and militarily weakened state, as a victory.
For the international community, finding an end to the war has become more urgent, especially considering the potential escalation into a full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. A ceasefire in Gaza could help alleviate these tensions.
The Biden administration, still recovering from the aftermath of the presidential debate with Donald Trump, would greatly benefit from a diplomatic success in this matter.
Considering these factors, the renewed hopes may prove more resilient this time, overcoming the negative factors that have previously dashed them.